Group Publications and Conference Preprints:
Publications
Conference Preprints and Presentations
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
1995
1. Tilley,J. S., J. A. Curry,
M. Lambeth and G. Liu, 1995: Simulation of an East Greenland Sea Ice Edge Polar Low. Fourth
Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography, American
Meteorological Society, Dallas, TX, January 15-20.
2. Tilley,J.S. A.H. Lynch, D. A. Bailey and K.Gilkey, 1995: Improving Short-Term Weather
Forecasting Using Numerical Modeling Techniques. Alaska COMET Outreach
Symposium, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Fairbanks, AK June 1995.
3. Tilley, J. S.,D. A. Bailey, A.H. Lynch, W. Chapman and K. Hedstrom, 1995: The Challenge
of Regional Climate Modeling in the Arctic. IUGG XXI General Assembly,
American Geophysical Union, Boulder CO, July 1995 [abstract published in .
4. Tilley, J. S., J.-W. Bao, T. T. Warner, Y. Zhang and D. A. Bailey, 1996: Four Dimensional
Data Assimilation Experiments over the Western Arctic using MM5. ARCSS
Modeling Workshop, Arctic Research Consortium of the United States, Boulder,
CO, 15-16 January 1996. [preprint]
5 .Lynch, A H., J. S. Tilley, W. L. Chapman, D. A. Bailey and J. Walsh, 1996: Regional Modeling
for Arctic Tundra Ecosystems: Performance of the Arctic Climate System Model and
Data Assimilation using MM5. ARCSS LAII Science Workshop, National Science
Foundation, ARCSS, Seattle, WA 22-24 February 1996. [preprint]
6. Tilley,J.S., D. A. Bailey, K. Gilkey, J. Julian and W.Wu, 1996: Towards Improving Short Term
Weather Forecasting Using Numerical Modeling Techniques: An Update. Alaska
COMET Outreach Symposium and Workshop on Operational Mesoscale Prediction,
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Fairbanks, AK, 10-13 June 1996.
7.Tilley,J.S, 1996: Modeling Meso-beta Scale Processes in Alaska. Alaska COMET Outreach
Symposium and Workshop on Operational Mesoscale Prediction, University
Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Fairbanks, AK, 10-13 June 1996. (invited)
8. Tilley,J.S., W. L. Chapman and W. Wu, 1996: Sensitivity Tests of the Canadian Land Surface
Scheme (CLASS) for Arctic Tundra. International Symposium on Representation of the
Cryosphere in Climate and Hydrological Models, International Glaciological
Society, Victoria, B. C., Canada, 12-15 August 1996.
9. Tilley,J.S, J.-W. Bao, Y. Zheng, W. Wu and T. T. Warner, 1996: Challenges for performing
four-dimensional data assimilation over the Western Arctic using a mesoscale
model. Preprints, 11th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, American
Meteorological Society, Norfolk , VA 19-23 August , 456-457.
10. Tilley, J. S., F. Hao, A. H. Lynch and D. A. Bailey, 1996: The Utility of a Regional Climate
Model in Improving Understanding of Sea Ice Behavior in the Bering Sea. 47th
Arctic Division Science Conference, American Association for the Advancement
of Science, Girdwood, AK 19-21 September 1996.
11. Tilley, J. S., A. H. Lynch, D. A. Bailey, W. L. Chapman, W.Wu, D.L. McGinnis, G. Weller and
J. E. Walsh, 1996. On the coupling of land surface packages within a regional climate
model of the Arctic. WCRP/EMaPS/IASC Workshop on Arctic Regional Climate
Models, Bracknell, U.K., 4-6 November 1996 (invited).
12. Tilley, J. S., W. L. Chapman and W. Wu, 1996: Sensitivity Tests of the Canadian Land Surface
Scheme for Two Arctic Tundra Sites. 1996 AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA,
15-19 December 1996.
13. Tilley, J. S. and K. Gilkey, 1997: The Use of High Resolution Mesoscale Models to Support
Operational Forecast Problems. Preprints, 13th Conference of Interactive Information
and Processing Systems (IIPS) for Meteorology, Oceanography and Hydrology,
American Meteorological Society, Long Beach, CA, 2-7 February, 383-386.
14. Tilley, J. S., 1997: Regional modeling studies of the western Arctic. Paper presented at
department seminars at Geoscience Departments, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan
and University of Tsukuba, Japan, February 1997. (invited presentations).
15. Tilley, J.S. and A. H. Lynch, 1997: On the applicability of current land surface schemes for
Arctic tundra: An intercomparison study. ARCSS LAII Science Workshop, National
Science Foundation, ARCSS, Seattle, WA, 26-29 March 1997.
16. Tilley, J.S. and K. B. Gilkey, 1997: Using High Resolution Mesoscale Models to Support
Operational Forecast Problems. COMET Alaska Region Symposium and Workshop, UCAR/COMET,
Fairbanks AK, 12-15 May (invited)
17. Tilley, J.S., D.-L. Wilkinson, J. Miller, K. Gilkey,C. Scott, H.L. Kelley, M. K. Politovich,
T. T. Warner, W. L. Chapman, A. H. Lynch, D.A. Bailey, W. Wu, J.-W. Bao and
A. L. Gravier, 1997: Regional Modeling in the Western Arctic. ARSC User Forum,
Arctic Region Supercomputing Center, Fairbanks AK, 12-14 Oct. (invited)
18. Tilley, J. S., K. B. Gilkey, C. A. Scott and D.-L. Wilkinson, 1997: Using High Resolution
Mesoscale Models to Support Operational Forecast Problems. CSTAR Science
Workshop, NOAA/Office of Meteorology, Silver Spring MD, 6-9 Oct. (invited)
19. Tilley, J. S., D.-L. Wilkinson, C. A. Scott, H. L. Kelley and K. B. Gilkey, 1997: Applications
of Mesoscale Atmospheric Models for Improved Forecasting of Aviation Weather. FAA
"Alliance for Safety" Meeting, FAA and NOAA/NWS, Anchorage, AK, 21-22 Oct.
(Invited presentation; also presented at Anchorage Chapter of American
Meteorological Society October meeting, 23 Oct).
20. Tilley, J. S. and D.-L. Wilkinson, 1998: Towards an Optimal Treatment of Sea Ice for
Short Period Arctic Mesoscale Prediction. Preprints, Second Conference on Coastal
Atmospheric and Oceanic Prediction and Processes, American Meteorological
Society, Phoenix, AZ, 11-16 January, 51-58.
21. Tilley, J. S., K. Gilkey, C. Scott and D.-L. Wilkinson, 1998: Implementation of a High
Resolution Mesoscale Model within an Operational NWS Regional Network. Preprints,
14h Conference on Interactive Information and Processing Systems (IIPS) for Meteorology,
Oceanography and Hydrology, American Meteorological Society, Phoenix, AZ, 11-16
January, J3-J7.
22. Tilley, J. S., D-L. Wilkinson, K. B. Gilkey and H. L. Kelley, 1998: Short Range Simulation
of an Alaskan Clear Air Turbulence Event. Preprints, 16th Conference on Weather
Analysis and Forecasting, American Meteorological Society, Phoenix, AZ 11-16
January, 68- 70.
23. Tilley, J. S., 1998: Towards Improved Forecasting of Icing and Turbulence in the Alaskan
Region. 1998 Spring Air Fair Expo, Northern Alaskan Aviation Symposium, Fairbanks, AK, 6 March.
24. Tilley, J.S., 1998: Application of Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Models to
Aviation Weather at the University of Alaska: Past, Present and Future. National
Weather Service/Alaska Region Aviation Weather Workshop, Anchorage, AK, 5-10 April.
25. Tilley, J. S, D.-L. Wilkinson and J. Miller, 1998: MM5 Ensemble Forecasts Over the Beaufort
Sea via Varying Model Physics. Preprints, Eighth PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model User's
Workshop. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 15-16 June , 45-48.
26. Tilley, J. S, J. Miller and D.-L. Wilkinson, 1998: An MM5-MPP "Physics-Based" Ensemble
Forecast for the Bosnia Theatre Using Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA)
Initialization. Preprints, Eighth PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model User's Workshop
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 15-16 June, 90-93.
27. Tilley, J. S. and K.Gilkey, 1998: Efforts to Implement MM5 within the Alaska Region
Operations Network (ARONET) Second Workshop on Real-Time Mesoscale
Numerical Weather Prediction, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder,
CO, 17 June.
28. Tilley, J.S, K. G. Gilkey, D.-L. Wilkinson, M.K. Politovich, C. A. Scott, H. L. Kelley,
G. Hufford and C. Dierking, 1998: Mesoscale Modeling in Support of Observational
Studies in the NWS Alaska Region. NOAA Review of Cooperative Institute for
Arctic Research, Fairbanks, AK, 16 September 1998.
29a. Tilley, J. S., D.-L. Wilkinson and M.K. Politovich, 1999: Application of Mesoscale
Model Data to Algorithms for Inflight Icing over the Alaska Region. Preprints, Eighth
Conference on Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology, 10-15 January, Dallas,
TX, 452-456.
29b. Paper 29a also appears in Preprints, The Ninth PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model
User's Workshop, 23-25 June, Boulder, CO, p. 120-123.
30. Tilley, J.S. and D.-L. Wilkinson, 1999: The Utility of Short-Range Mesoscale Ensemble
Forecasting over the Western Arctic. Preprints, Fifth Conference on Polar Meteorology
And Oceanography, 10-15 January, Dallas, TX, 25-30.
31. Fielding, D. J., K. B. Gilkey and J. S. Tilley, 1999: Development of 4-D Visualization
Capabilities Within the NWS Alaska Region Operational Network Environment. Preprints,
15th International Conference on Interactive Information and Processing Systems for
Meteorology, Oceanography and Hydrology, AMS, 10-15 January, Dallas,TX, 502-505.
32. Tilley, J.S. and D. J. Fielding, 1999: Mesoscale Ensemble Forecasting in the Western
Arctic.Preprints, The Ninth PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model Users' Workshop, 23-25 June,
Boulder, CO, 78-81.
33b. Paper 33a also presented as IARC/Frontier seminar, July 1999, Fairbanks, AK
34. Tilley, J.S., D. Y. Harrington and D. J. Fielding, 1999: On appropriate cumulus schemes
for the Polar Regions. Preprints, 13th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, AMS,
13-17 September, Denver, 50-53.
35. Tilley, J.S., D.Y. Harrington and D. J. Fielding, 1999: Ensemble forecasting in the western
Arctic. Preprints, 13th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, AMS, 13-17 September,
Denver, CO, 215-220.
36. Tilley, J.S., 2000: A Near-Real Time MM5-Based Forecast and Verification System at UAF:
Current Status and Future Plans: UAF Atmospheric Science Seminar, 9 August, Fairbanks, AK.
37. Tilley, J. S. and J. Zhang, 2000: Testing methodologies for high latitude soil moisture initialization
in the Penn State/ NCAR MM5 mesoscale model. AGU Fall 2000 Meeting, American Geophysical
Union, 15-19 December, San Francisco, CA. [abstract available in EOS 11/21/00 supplement CDROM]
38. Zhang, J. and J. S. Tilley, 2000: High latitude soil moisture initialization in the Penn State/ NCAR
MM5 mesoscale model: Sensitivity tests and applicability to winter conditions. AGU Fall 2000
Meeting, American Geophysical Union, 15-19 December, San Francisco, CA. [abstract available
in EOS 11/21/00 supplement CDROM]
39. Zhang, J. and J. S. Tilley, 2001: Mesoscale simulations of cold season
Alaskan atmosphere-surface interactions using PSU/NCAR MM5 model coupled to the NOAH-LSM
land surface model. Preprints,6th Conference on Polar Meteorology
and Oceanography, 14-18 May, San Diego, CA, 316-320.
40a. Tilley, J. S. and J. Zhang, 2001: The use of satellite-derived temperature for soil moisture
initialization in the Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model (MM5). Preprints, 6th Conference on Polar Meteorology
and Oceanography, 14-18 May, San Diego, CA, 322-325.
40b. Paper 40a also presented at ARL/GI Workshop, 23-24 July 2001, Fairbanks, AK.
41. Tilley, J. S., J. Long, C. Weatherby and E. L'Herault, 2001: On the
performance of the AFWA version of the PSU/NCAR MM5 model
for short range forecasting in Alaska, the Western Arctic and North Pacific.
Preprints,6th Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography, 14-18 May, San Diego,
CA, 367-370.
42. Tilley, J. S. J. Ke, J. Long and E. L'Herault, 2001: Further experiments in mesoscale ensemble
forecasting in the Western Arctic. Preprints, 6th
Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography, 14-18 May,
San Diego, CA, 160-163.
43a. Tilley, J. S., and C. Weatherby, 2001: On the sensitivity of simulated subarctic wintertime inversions
to PBL parameterization. Preprints,11th
PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model Users' Workshop, 25-27 June,
Boulder, CO, 106-109.
43b. Paper 43a also presented as UAF Atmospheric Science Seminar, 25 July 2001.
44a. Zhang, J. and J. S. Tilley, 2001: Towards improvement of sea-ice physics in MM5 for the Arctic
regional modeling. Preprints, 11th PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model Users' Workshop, AMS, 25-27 June,
Boulder, CO, 122-125.
44b. Paper 44a also presented at 2nd Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)
Workshop, 15-17 August 2001, Boulder, CO. (paper available online at www.wrf-model.org)
45. Fan ,X., and J. S. Tilley, 2001: Application of the Bratseth scheme
for high latitude intermittent data assimilation using the PSU/NCAR
mesoscale model. Preprints, 14th Conference on Numerical Weather
Prediction, AMS, 30 July -2 August, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, J139-J143.
46.Tilley, J. S., and X. Fan, 2001: Revisiting the utility of Newtonian nudging
for four dimensional data assimilation in high latitude mesoscale forecasts.
Preprints, 14th Conference on Numerical Weather
Prediction, AMS, 30 July-2 August, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, J144-J148.
47. Tilley, J. S, and R. Thoman, 2001: Gauging mesoscale predictability
of an unusual high latitude snow event via a multi-model comparison. Preprints,9th
Conference on Mesoscale Processes, AMS, 30 July-2 August, Ft. Lauderdale, FL ,326-330.
48. Zhang, J. and J. S. Tilley, 2001: Assimilation of soil moisture from Satellite-derived skin temperature
within the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model MM5. Preprints, 11th Conference on Satellite
Meteorology and Oceanography, AMS, 15-19 October, Madison, WI, 83-86.
49. Tilley, J.S. and J. Long, 2001: Incoporating data from GOES and POES platforms into an integrated
in-flight icing diagnostic algorithm for Alaska. Preprints, 11th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and
Oceanography, AMS, 15-19 October, Madison, WI, 99-102.
50. Tilley, J.S., 2001: Regional Modeling Activities at the University of Alaska Geophysical Institute and
International Arctic Research Center. Meteorology/IPRC Joint Seminar, University of Hawaii-Manoa, 9 October.
51. Stevens, D., J. S. Tilley and J. Klemp, 2001: Development of the U.S. Weather Research and Forecast
(WRF) Model. First International Pacific Research Center Regional Climate Modeling Workshop,
University of Hawaii-Manoa, 10-11 October.