WELCOME to the UAF Experimental Near-Real-Time Mesoscale Model Verification and Forecast System Page

Welcome to the Forecast Verification Page!

Below are links to a series of plots representing initial work on verification of the AFWA MM5 runs on the T1A domain. All verification is currently being performed against the initializing analysis, for 00 and 12 UTC forecast cycles and forecast times of 12 and 24 hours from the cycle initial time. The following statistics, all of which represent domain averages, are available:

Root Mean Square (RMS) Error statistics for Surface Temperature, Sea Level Pressure, and Surface Mixing Ratio. ( 45km-Domain , 15km-Domain )

S1 Skill Scores at sigmal level 20 for Temperature, Horizontal Wind Vector, and Surface Mixing Ratio. ( 45km-Domain , 15km-Domain )

S1 Skill Scores at surface for Temperature, Sea Level Pressure, and Surface Mixing Ratio. ( 45km-Domain , 15km-Domain )

Average Absolute Error (AAE) statistics for Surface Temperature, Sea Level Pressure, and Surface Mixing Ratio. ( 45km-Domain , 15km-Domain )

Average Bias statistics for Surface Temperature, Sea Level Pressure, and Surface Mixing Ratio. ( 45km-Domain , 15km-Domain )

Anomaly Correlations for Surface Temperature, Sea Level Pressure, and Surface Mixing Ratio. ( 45km-Domain , 15km-Domain )